On Skepticism /  by Nathan Jones

skeptic – n.

  1. A person inclined to doubt all accepted opinions; a cynic.
  2. A person who doubts the truth of Christianity and other religions.
  • My beliefs are a network of working hypotheses (interconnected, interdependent) that permit me to make predictions about the future with varying degrees of certainty. That is, my beliefs can be expressed in the form, "If this, then that." 
  • I cannot be infinitely certain about anything. That is, I cannot assign a probability of 1 to any belief.
  • Therefore, in all of my thinking – that is, in all of the predictions proceeding from my beliefs – the best I can do is to be less wrong.
  • Therefore, I must work tirelessly to maintain the health of my beliefs. This is the primary function of active, sustained skepticism. Skepticism is my antibody against bullshit. It is the first line of my intellectual self-defence.
  • Skepticism turned outwards works to prevent false evidence and flawed hypotheses from contaminating my beliefs.
  • Skepticism turned inwards works to modify or kill my beliefs in light of new evidence. It also helps me to identify so-called beliefs that do not constrain my anticipation of what might happen in the future. These "floating beliefs," i.e., those that take the form, "If this, then ... ?" have no place my thinking and must be purged. 
  • It is skepticism turned inwards that permits me - no, commands me - to change my mind in the face of new evidence. The ability to change my mind is not a sign of weakness, but of strength - regardless of any accusation of "flip-flopping."
  • It is skepticism turned inwards that allows me to see the good in my enemies and the evil in myself.
  • I must guard vigilantly against "motivated skepticism," that is, the tendency to hold to a higher standard of evidence those hypotheses that I simply do not like, or that run counter to my staked-out positions. As a naturally skeptical person, I often find it difficult to distinguish between my background, always-on skepticism and this heightened, pointed skepticism. I must be skeptical of my skepticism. ;)
  • Skeptics are typically regarded as argumentative and disagreeable. Therefore, it is usually best not to maintain a position of militant skepticism.

cynic - n.

  1. A person who has little faith in human sincerity and goodness.
  • Despite the Oxford definition of skeptic (above), I am unequivocally not a cynic.

Privilege is not perpetual, and other observations /  by Nathan Jones

My brain for "thinking slow" has been jumbled of late. Here are a few thoughts that I've been able to rescue from the mess. Nothing earth-shattering, or even original, but worth filing away as topics for future essays, perhaps.

On Privilege

  • The roots of privilege are old and run deep.
  • Privilege is dispensed arbitrarily, without regard to personal worthiness.   
  • Inasmuch as we are blind to our privileges, we accept them as our rights.
  • We, the privileged, massively discount the advantages that privilege bestows. Instead of asking ourselves why we have better health and education, more money, and generally easier lives than other people, we believe that our successes are the just rewards of our innate worth and skill; we believe that we have earned and deserve them.
  • We look down on people who are less privileged as if they are dumb and lazy and deserve their miserable lots in life because they are worse people than we are.
  • We feel justified in looking down on those who are less privileged because rags-to-riches stories are always ready at hand. These stories "prove" to us that hard work and determination are sufficient to guarantee success, regardless of circumstance. Rags-to-riches stories comfort us. They allow us to accept the inequality that abounds all around us. We do not recognize, or admit to ourselves, that these stories are outliers that prove nothing. They represent the exception, not the rule. The majority of the earth's human population confronts daily adversities that we can scarcely imagine – adversities that trap innumerable people in cycles of poverty, ill-health, and despair.  
  • When things go badly, we are quick to blame external circumstances beyond our control, yet when they go well, we credit internal characteristics, like our hard work and intelligence.
  • If the extrinsic nature of advantage came to be more generally appreciated, society would be more charitable, more just, and more equal.
  • Just because we have enjoyed a particular privilege in the past does not mean that we have a perpetual claim to it, no matter how fervently we believe this privilege to be our right. However, structural mechanisms lend inertia to our advantages and may entrench them for generations.

On (Cognitive) Bias

  • Bias is insidious because we are blind to our own. 

On Statistics

  • No individual is representative of the group.
  • Anecdote is anathema.

On Truth

  • Skepticism does not equal relativism.

Fever (redux) /  by Nathan Jones